A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
